am-books 272 Cattle Calculus
272 Cattle Calculus
The most difficult part of helming a space vessel, in Donovan's experience, was not falling asleep. A silly statement in isolation, but made much more meaningful in context.See, there wasn't much to do in the cockpit of most vessels - a trait shared by everything from the smallest fighters to the largest dreadnoughts - and the extended periods of time one would be expected to man or supervise the controls without a break could bring fatigue in a way most people wouldn't even consider. Boredom was a killer, and would continue to be a killer as long as boring tasks remained a manual process. Someone stuck with a boring task could find themselves succumbing to the desire to sleep, daydream, or otherwise becoming incredibly distracted by a weld on the ceiling that bore a passing resemblance to a snake.
Therefore, the first half of not falling asleep was being aware of what could bring you to that point.
"AH! Fuck!" The second half being a generous application of electricity. "Sorry."
"It is not an issue. We are approaching the 50 hour milestone since last you slept."
"I used to be able to go much longer though."
"A habit which was detrimental to you physically. We've confirmed the integrity of the tether system with regard to ships that do not possess beacons, so you may rest with an easy mind the next time we are transiting outside of Split-Space."
"Looking forward to it." Donovan eyed the checklist off to the side, finding there to be more tasks remaining than when they began. "How much of this can you handle yourself?"
"Even if I performed some of these tasks myself, I would think it wise to have you either supervise or check my work for mistaken assumptions and problem points that are still within the acceptable margins."
"Better to do it when I'm present then . . . do I really need to do the calculations for livestock?"
"Yes."
". . . not going to elaborate?"
"Why would I need to?"
"This isn't something I should be focusing on right now."
"Why not?"
"Why not? Because there are a million other things more important than livestock at the moment. I'd rather get a handle on the mechanics behind the Split Reactor and establish a communication regimen with our Holifanian friends. Cattle is pretty low on the list of priorities."
"Perhaps in the immediate, but I wish for you to entertain my suggestion regardless. I believe that performing this exercise will be beneficial for you in the long term."
"What do you mean?" Donovan tugged on his shock collar, moving the prongs to a different location.
"Your current education and skillset is almost entirely focused around the military. It covers a wide range of topics, such as design, doctrine, deployment, organization, and industry, many of which have applications outside of that field but you are still severely lacking development in many areas I would consider to be essential for a ruler."
"Cattle calculus is one of them?"
"Yes." Donovan recoiled slightly, shocked not by the collar but the curt reply. "Agriculture is one thing, but livestock is a completely different animal, if you would pardon the pun. While it is certainly true that a primary product of animal rearing is food, primarily in the form of meat and dairy, there are other aspects to consider when selecting both the type of livestock to invest in and the method through which you raise them."
"Is this a quality versus quantity issue?"
"Partially, though I think you'll find cultural and ethical implications as well as impacts on the overall health and physiology of a society. To provide an example of the cultural, I would like for you to imagine two different societies. The first society is one centered around agriculture, tied closely to a land feature such as a river that serves to keep them alive. The second is a society that depends upon livestock, their own livelihoods entirely dependent upon their wellbeing. What cultural differences and developmental struggles might you suspect to arise between them?"
"Why does it matter? Neither situation seems relevant to an industrialized nation." Donovan found himself unreasonably annoyed.
"Entertain the question, please. There are lessons for you to learn here, and I wish for you to piece them together by yourself. This is just as much an exercise in reasoning as it is ruling."
Donovan scoffed, aware that he had time to participate in these shenanigans but unwilling to admit it.
"One is likely to develop . . . nomadic tendencies - if that's the term - while the other is all but guaranteed to remain sedentary. It would follow that one gets really good at learning when, where, and how to move around, while the other is going to have a much more developed and centralized governing structure, as well as better construction capabilities."
"Anything else?"
". . . I suppose the sedentary group would be more likely to develop a writing system given they don't need to move their writings with them, though that doesn't seem relevant to a world without language."
"I give your answer a three out of ten. A solid analysis given your lack of familiarity with the humanities and societal development, particularly that of ancient history, however you failed to address the oriented part of the question in its entirety and seem to have a rather serious misconception about relying upon animals, though the form of my question may be somewhat to blame. While it is true that relying on animals to sustain yourself provides the opportunity to live nomadically, it is entirely possible to remain in a single location and raise your livestock there. This is called pastoralism."
"Mhm. Yeah, this isn't exactly my wheelhouse, so . . ."
"Which makes it all the more important that you have at least some understanding. I doubt anybody would seriously expect their king to be intimately familiar with the challenges and history of animal husbandry and agriculture, but having enough knowledge to understand what is going on when these subjects come up may prove vital in the future."
"How so?" Donovan had given up trying to argue whether or not this was even worth it. He was tired, and Arc seemed eager to give him something 'easy' to keep him from stressing.
"An example you may find easier to understand pertains to conquest and integration. Historically, nomads have been relatively difficult peoples to conquer given their proclivities toward movement and a lack of loyalty to a given plot of land. However they also have their fair share of difficulties and weaknesses, among them their herd. Demonstrating yourself as a threat or boon to that herd may make them more receptive to your demands."
"Is that really something that requires cultural enrichment course? That's more like a possible objective I should be informed of."
"Possibly, however you won't always be approaching these matters militarily."
"Then wouldn't you or Diana be capable of handling the situation? Or even a subordinate? Kings, generals, and admirals hardly engage with cattle."
"Donovan."
"Look, all I'm saying is that our time would be better spent handling more pressing issues."
"Would you say you possess the necessary capacity to complete the tasks to a satisfactory degree?"
Donovan scanned the list again, taking note that almost all of them required some level of technical analysis or data interpretation. Those that didn't needed another person present to navigate the Holifanian communication's directory, or were instruction on key mechanical elements of the ship. He couldn't imagine handling any of it in his current state to any degree of confidence.
"Cattle it is."
"Thank you. I will attempt to keep things simple, though I encourage you to answer the questions I pose to you with a degree of thought."
"Understood." Donovan slumped down in his seat, allowing himself to relax. He might as well give this an honest effort, even when hindered by his lack of sleep.
"Returning to the first question, that which pertains to cultural differences, I must admit that this was something of a trick question. Nomadic, pastoral, and agricultural societies exist along something of a scale, a line of development if you would. Nomadic and agricultural lifestyles are completely at odds with each other, however livestock can be made to thrive in both scenarios. This does not mean that a society requires livestock to settle into a sedentary lifestyle, nor does it mean that a nomadic people with a herd will develop into an agricultural society."
"Why is that?" If these 'lifestyles' could be though of as a points of development needed to reach 'civilization', how could one be skipped? Wouldn't something in the center need to be present to reach the end?
"The logic goes something like this. Humans first started as groups engaged in hunting and gathering to sustain themselves, most frequently moving between places with more readily available food. It is believed that some tribes captured a selection of more docile herbivores and decided to make a decision that would benefit them long-term, keeping them alive to sustain their numbers while protecting them from threats, the first herds. Others did something similar with plants, figuring out they could plant the profitable seeds and protect them from other beasts instead of roaming around to gather them in nature. At some point people began to realize that they could do both jobs more efficiently at the same time, growing food for their herds and utilizing the powerful bodies of certain animals to provide labor to grow more food."
"So it's a positive feedback loop. Without one of those methods you don't develop the efficiency needed to support specialists in fields extraneous to subsistence."
"That conjecture is more or less correct. In a fertile enough environment it is possible to develop a great enough efficiency to not require working animals, though a greater portion of the population ends up working to sustain the population as a result."
"Mhm. I take it this is one of the reasons the Americas fell behind?"
"Yes. The inability to generate a consistent food surplus hindered population growth and the portion of which could dedicate themselves to specialization, but that is beyond the scope of this conversation. Livestock and agricultural practices are both pivotal in societal developments, however this does not mean that nomads are without use to an agricultural society. In fact, nomadic communities played an incredibly important role given their proclivity towards movement. Can you guess what that might be based on their relative strengths?"
"Were they scouts?" Donovan had no idea what they had aside from movement, and he didn't exactly know what was considered 'valuable' for the period of time Arc referred to. "Maybe as navigators? Cartographers?"
"Navigator, while a crude description of the answer, is close. The answer I was looking for was 'traders' or 'merchants', or perhaps the suggestion they travelled between settled agricultural societies to barter. Early on they were likely the only reasonable means of communication between settlements, and facilitated the spread of ideas. There is reason to believe that many of these nomadic traders were ostracized from settled communities for one reason or another, a conclusion derived from documented evidence worldwide - from discrimination against the Roma in Europe to the merchant caste of the Feudal Japanese - though it should be noted that not all polities engaged in the practice. Aside from the basic economic implications of resource acquisition, can you guess why?"
"I imagine it would be difficult for an aristocrat to obtain luxuries without someone willing to go the distance." This seemed a little too obvious to Donovan, and he felt they were straying from the topic of 'cattle'.
"While a reasonable assumption in some instances, the answer I was looking for is 'taxes'." Donovan slapped his forehead, why hadn't he thought of that? "Do not beat yourself up over it. As I said, your answer is a reasonable assumption. Taxes could be placed in a variety of ways, including the taking of a percentage of profits or goods, the charging of tolls to access certain roads, bridges, or cities, or even requiring the purchase of a permit to trade within a polity, which brings me to another question. What would you categorize 'livestock' as for the purposes of revenue generation?"
"What do you mean?"
"Would you consider them a traded good subject to taxes as they cross municipal borders? The property of the peasants charged with their care? These creatures are quite valuable in a variety of ways, their very existence capable of generating value in one way or another, so would you consider a tax on that value as well?"
"I don't know enough about taxes for that." Donovan's attempt at dodging the question earned him a light shock to the throat. "Fine. Given the magnitude of investment that a cow apparently represents, which I assume to be a fairly substantial portion of their net worth, I would not consider issuing a tax on their transportation between municipalities. In fact, I probably wouldn't consider taxing any part or product not exchanged with another person."
"So a sales tax then?"
"If that is what you call it, then yes."
"I won't say it is a proposal without merit, but it lacks substance. Your proposal fails to consider the ability of livestock to reproduce, an action that effectively generates value from nothing. It also fails to consider methods through which your tax can be evaded." Donovan raised an eyebrow, not entirely sure how that was possible. "The terms of the tax you described involve the sale of goods, presumably with currency. This completely disregards the potential for barter or 'gifting' in exchange for other goods or services, something that would be incredibly difficult to keep track of and assign a value to. For example, it would be reasonable to assume someone might re-roof a barn or house in exchange for a cow's leg, meat itself being quite valuable and the volume being able to sustain a family for quite some time."
"I don't think that's an issue though?"
". . . you don't?"
"Yeah. As far as I'm concerned, a tax on goods exists to reimburse the state for the use of its currency. If the parties involved have no need to exchange it, then the state has no need to collect a portion of the value." Donovan felt that to be a reasonable position given his understanding of the state's role as the facilitator of regulated societal interaction. "Is that wrong?"
". . . I don't know if I would consider it an incorrect stance, but it is definitely an archaic position. Transactions facilitated within a nation's borders have traditionally been seen as realized by the state, and therefore subject to taxation. Would you like to elaborate? If only so I can better understand your position?"
"Child A has a sandwich in his lunchbox. Child B has a burrito in his. Both children would prefer what the other has, and so agree to trade. Would it be right or fair for their teacher to take a bite because he allows the children to trade their lunches?"
"That hardly seems ethical."
"Two days later, Child A has forgotten his lunch at home. Child B still had a burrito packed in his lunchbox, however he's not really that hungry today. He supposes he wouldn't mind giving Child A his burrito, but he doesn't want to do it without getting something in return as he still might get hungry later. Child A offers to exchange a sum of Class Cash in exchange, something recognized by everyone in the class as a valuable item as it is earned through extra credit assigned by the teacher and may be exchanged at the end of the semester for a few extra percentage points on their final. They agree on a price for it, and perform the trade. Would it be right or fair for the teacher to take a portion of the Class Cash in this exchange because his system facilitated the exchange?" worth. The values will cover the growth of the herd with time, so giving an idea of the effort needed to manage a given herd in terms of profit to net worth will show the economic efficiency of each."
"Wonderful."
"Selling cattle at their prime will increase the total value of the herd from 2250 ducats to just over a million over the course of 40 years, netting almost 190 thousand ducats per year in cattle sales while paying a little under thirteen thousand ducats per year with a 1% head tax. The herd will have generated 1.46 million ducats in sales and 98 thousand ducats in head taxes total.
Selling the breeding stock at the ten year mark and excess bulls at the five will increase the total value of the herd to 52.5 million ducats, generating 3.18 million in sales and 477 thousand in head taxes annually. The herd will have generated 15 million ducats in sales and 2.25 million ducats in head taxes total.
Selling the breeding stock at the end of their lives and the bulls at five will bring the herd's value to 63.5 million ducats, generating 2.65 million in sales and 546 thousand in head taxes per year. Total sales come to 12.4 million and taxes to 2.55 million ducats."
"So selling at the ten year mark is by far the best then."
"If you wish to balance growth with generated value, then yes, this would be the best for all parties, but what if you have reached the limit of what the market wants? At this point the point shouldn't be to maximize growth, but efficiency. This model assumes that cattle have no upkeep, but in real life there is an incredibly important factor we have not considered, that being the labor needed to manage the herd. The latter two models both have herd sizes that have ballooned into the tens of thousands of cattle, a frankly unmanageable quantity for a single person. This would require more people, splitting the profits between them and making the job less desirable while also stripping the labor market of workers that could be used elsewhere."
"How big is the difference in that department?"
"These numbers are percent transformations of net worth, and consider the herd to be growing as before. Twenty year cycles will stabilize in the 3.0 to 3.5% range, ten year cycles in the 5.0 to 5.5% range, and five year cycles have an efficiency of about 16.5 percent. This suggests that a cattle operation prioritizing the most fertile years of a cow's life will generate three times as much money per unit of labor and upkeep for the ten year cycles, and five times that of the full lifetime of the cows."
"And taxes?"
"That depends on the specific rates. You will never be able to completely control the market, but a harsh enough head tax can disincentivize production practices that are detrimental to the market and state coffers."
"Seems a little scummy."
"It is impossible for a state to be moral if it desires a continued existence. The circumstances of reality will eventually force it to confront a problem to which there is no clean solution. I will be adding a few books to your reading list as well."